文档介绍：南京航空航天大学
硕士学位论文
基于产业结构视角的浙江省经济增长与能源消费关系研究
姓名:颜文燕
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:数量经济学
指导教师:吴和成
20090301
南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文
摘要
能源问题是近年来困扰众多国家和地区的一个重大问题。随着浙江经济进入新一轮的扩张
期,浙江经济遭遇了前所未有的“能源危机”。严重的能源供需矛盾成了限制浙江经济发展的“
瓶颈”,而能否很好的解决这一问题,将成为影响浙江经济能否持续、快速、健康发展的关键。
基于上述背景条件,本文将试图从产业结构这个视角重新诠释经济增长与能源消费之间的
关系。本文围绕着基于产业结构视角的浙江经济增长与能源消费关系这个主题,采用了协整理
论、Toda-Yamamoto因果检验等计量模型以及GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,从两个方面对该问题进行
了深入的研究和探索:能源消费与三大产值之间的协整关系及因果关系检验;纳入产业结构因
子的可变生产函数模型的研究。研究结果显示:第二产业是导致浙江能源消费长期增长的主要
原因,能源是第三产业发展的动力;产业结构调整通过优化能源配置推动了浙江经济的快速发
展,但试图通过产业结构调整,优化能源配置从而获得经济持续增长将变得不再显著。
在本文的最后部分,针对如何实现浙江省经济增长与能源消费的可持续发展提出了相关的
产业结构调整与能源政策,即在今后的工作中要在继续推行现有的产业结构政策的基础上,更
加注重产业结构的内部调整,同时关注能源问题的解决。
关键词:能源消费,经济增长,产业结构,状态空间模型

I
基于产业结构视角的浙江省经济增长与能源消费关系研究
Abstract
Recently, energy has been an important problem needed to be resolved by many countries and
regions. As Zhejiang economic’s entry into a new period of economic expansion, Zhejiang has
suffered from serious energy crisis. Facing the contradiction between the energy supply and demand,
better settlement of the energy problem is not only beneficial to the sustainable development but also
has significant meanings to the building of resource-saving society.
Based on the above condition, we attempt to re-explain the relationship between the economic
growth and energy consumption from the point of industrial structure. In this paper, we apply
co-integration theory, Toda-Yamamoto causality test etc. to study the deep relationship of the two
variables from the following two aspects, the co-integration and causality relationship between the
energy consumption and the production value of three major industries, and the study of varying
economic growth model. Our results show that the second industry is the main reason leading into the
growth of energy consumption, and energy is the power of the development of the tertiary industry,
and the adjustment of the indus