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The McKinsey Global Institute
The McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), the business and economics research
arm of Mcn 2019, the global economy continued to feel the lingering effects of the 2019
financial crisis. For those hoping to see progress on reducing the debt overhang
from the credit bubble and a stronger economic recovery, it was a year of
disappointment and fresh dangers.
Two years ago, the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) published a report that
examined the global credit bubble and looked at 32 episodes in which countries
had significantly reduced their debt—or deleveraged—after a financial crisis. In
that research, Debt and deleveraging: The global credit bubble and its economic
consequences, we warned how long and painful the process of reducing debt
would be.
In this report, we update that research and assess the progress in deleveraging
by the major mature economies today. We focus particularly on the United States,
the United Kingdom, and Spain, three large economies in which the credit bubble
was pronounced. These nations are facing a range of challenges that illustrate
the difficult trade-offs involved in stabilizing financial systems, reducing debt, and
restarting growth.
We also examine more closely the banking crises and deleveraging episodes of
Sweden and Finland in the 1990s, which offer relevant lessons for debt reduction
today. We see that these Nordic deleveraging episodes proceeded in two
phases—several years of private-sector debt reduction and recession, followed by
a longer period of economic expansion and public-sector deleveraging. It is our
hope that by looking deeply into how today’s economies are progressing through
these phases, business leaders and policy makers can gain a better perspective
on what to expect and how to craft policies and strategies for a deleveraging
environment.
McKinsey Global Institute leaders Charles Roxburgh and Susan Lund directed
this research. McKinsey directors James Manyika, Richard Dobbs, Toos