2021全球能源评估报告.pdf

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GlobalEnergy
Review2021
Assessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoverieson
globalenergydemandandCOemissionsin2021
2:.
INTERNATIONALENERGY
AGENCY
TheIEAexaminestheIEAmemberIEAassociation
fullspectrumcountries:countries:
ofenergyissues
includingoil,gasandAustraliaBrazil
coalsupplyandAustriaChina
demand,renewableBelgiumIndia
energytechnologies,
electricitymarkets,CanadaIndonesia
energyefficiency,CzechRepublicMorocco
accesstoenergy,DenmarkSingapore
demandsideEstoniaSouthAfrica
managementandFinlandThailand

itswork,theIEAGermany
advocatespoliciesthatGreece
willenhancetheHungary
reliability,affordabilityIreland
andsustainabilityof
energyinitsItaly
30membercountries,Japan
8associationcountriesKorea

Mexico
Netherlands
NewZealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
PleasenotethatthisSlovakRepublic
publicationissubjecttoSpain
specificrestrictionsthatlimit

termsandconditionsareSwitzerland
availableonlineatTurkey
&c/UnitedKingdom
UnitedStates
Thispublicationandany
mapincludedhereinareTheEuropean
withoutprejudicetotheCommissionalso
statusoforsovereigntyoverparticipatesinthe
anyterritory,tothe
delimitationofinternationalworkoftheIEA
frontiersandboundariesand
tothenameofanyterritory,
cityorarea.
Source:
reserved.
InternationalEnergyAgency
Website::.
GlobalEnergyReview2021Abstract
Assessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveries
onglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021
Abstract
AstheworldentersasecondyearoftheCovid-19pandemic,theannualGlobal
EnergyReviewassessesthedirectionenergydemandandcarbondioxide
-timeanalysis
confirmourinitialestimatesfor2020energydemandandCO2emissionswhile
providinginsightsintohoweconomicactivityandenergyusearereboundingin
countriesaroundtheworld–andwhatthismeansforglobalemissions.
TheacceleratingrolloutsofCovid-19vaccinationsinmanymajoreconomiesand
widespreadfiscalresponsestotheeconomiccrisisareboostingtheoutlookfor

exploreswhetherthereboundinactivityriskspushingCO2emissionstoanew
highandtowhatdegreenewpoliciestargetingasustainablerecoveryareableto
curbareboundinemissions.
Thepaceofglobalvaccinerollouts,thepossibleemergenceofnewvariantsofthe
Covid-19virus,andthesizeandeffectivenessofeconomicstimulusmeasuresall

chartsapossiblepathforenergyuseandCO2emissionsin2021butalso
highlightsthemanyfactorsthatcouldleadtodifferingoutcomes.
PAGE|1
:.
GlobalEnergyReview2021Keyfindings
Assessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveries
onglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021
Keyfindings
TheCovid-
wavesofthepandemicareprolongingrestrictionsonmovementandcontinueto

%
in2021,pushingtheglobalGDPmorethan2%higherthan2019levels
Emergingmarketsaredrivingenergydemandbackabove2019levels.
%in2021,morethanoffsetting
the4%%
70%oftheprojectedincreaseinglobalenergydemandisinemergingmarkets
anddevelopingeconomies,%above2019
%belowpre-Covid
levels.
Globalenergy-relatedCO2emissionsareheadingfortheirsecond-largest

%morethanall
renewablescombined,underpinningariseinemissionsofalmost5%,or1500Mt.
Thisexpectedincreasewouldreverse80%ofthedropin2020,withemissions
%(or400Mt)below2019emissionslevels.
Sluggishdemandfortransportoilismitigatingthereboundinemissions.
%in2021,globaloildemandissetto
remainaround3%
reachpre-
remain20%below2019levelseveninDecember2021,withannualdemandmore
than30%-crisisoildemandlevelswould
%,puttingthemwellabove2019
levels.
Globalcoaldemandin2021issettoexceed2019levelsandapproachits
%in2021,withmorethan80%

50%
isalsorebounding,butisstillsettoremainwellbelowpre-
sectoraccountedforonly50%ofthedropincoal-
therapidincreaseincoal-firedgenerationinAsiameansthepowersectoris
expectedtoaccountfor80%ofthereboundin2021.
PAGE|2
:.
GlobalEnergyReview2021Keyfindings
Assessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveries
onglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021
Amongfossilfuels,naturalgasisoncourseforthebiggestriserelativeto
%in2021,propelledby
increasingdemandinAsia,theMiddleEastandtheRussianFederation
(“Russia”).Thisisexpectedtoputglobaldemandmorethan1%above2019
–theworld’slargestnaturalgasmarket–theannual
increaseindemandissettoamounttolessthan20%ofthe20bcmdeclinein
2020,squeezedbythecontinuedgrowthofrenewablesandrisingnaturalgas
-quartersoftheglobaldemandgrowthin2021isfromthe
industryandbuildingssectors,whileelectricitygenerationfromnaturalgas
remainsbelow2019levels.
Electricitydemandisheadingforitsfastestgrowthinmorethan10years.
%in2021,
almostfivetimesgreaterthanthedeclinein2020,cementingelectricity'ssharein
finalenergydemandabove20%.Almost80%oftheprojectedincreaseindemand
in2021isinemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies,withthePeople's
RepublicChina(“China”)
advancedeconomiesremainsbelow2019levels.
RenewablesremainthesuccessstoryoftheCovid-
renewablesgrewby3%in2020andissettoincreaseacrossallkeysectors–
power,heating,industryandtransport–,
withitsdemandforrenewablesoncoursetoexpandbymorethan8%,toreach
8300TWh,thelargestyear-on-yeargrowthonrecordinabsoluteterms.
Renewablesaresettoprovidemorethanhalfoftheincreaseinglobal
-
thirdsofrenewables’
projectedtoincreasetoalmost30%in2021,theirhighestsharesincethe
beginningoftheIndustrialRevolutionandupfromlessthan27%
ontracktorecordthelargestincreaseinrenewablegeneration,growingby
275TWh,oraround17%,
toriseby145TWh,oralmost18%,andtoapproach1000TWhin2021.
Chinaaloneislikelytoaccountforalmosthalftheglobalincreasein
,the

solarPVandwindin2021,theEuropeanUnionaround580TWh,andtheUnited
,theyrepresentalmostthree-quartersofglobalsolar
PVandwindoutput.
PAGE|3
:.
GlobalEnergyReview2021EconomicimpactsofCovid19
Assessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveries
onglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021
EconomicimpactsofCovid-19
2021:Ayearofglobaleconomicrecovery?
Whiletheglobalhealthcrisiscontinuesintheearlymonthsof2021withsecond
andeventhirdwavesofthevirusinmanyregions,acceleratingvaccinerollouts
andmajorstimuluspackagesinmanyadvancedeconomieshaveprovideda
%in2021,
%dropin2020.
AnnualrateofchangeinworldGDP1990-2021
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
1990200020102021
.
Source:IEAanalysisbasedoneconomicdatafromtheIMFandOxfordEconomics.
ThankstoasuccessfulvaccineprogramandtheAmericanRescuePlan(“the
Bidenstimulus”),GDPintheUnitedStateswillriseabovepre-Covid-19
projections.
TheEuropeanUnion,ontheotherhand,washitbyaseveresecondwaveinthe
winterof2020/21,leadingtorenewedeconomicclosuresandlockdowns,with

nationalstimuluspackagesmaynotbefeltuntilthesecondhalfoftheyear.
%
positivenote,thebloc’sindustrialproductionisbacktopre-Covidlevels,owingto

PAGE|4
:.
GlobalEnergyReview2021EconomicimpactsofCovid19
Assessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveries
onglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021

through2021,drivenbyexports,butespeciallybydomesticdemand,including
policy-
wavesofthepandemicthroughtestingandtracing,andlikewisearebenefiting
fromrevivingworldtrade.
ChangeinGDPinselectedregions,2019to2021
15%
10%India
EuropeanUnion
5%Japan
UnitedStates
0%China
World
-5%
-10%
2020/20192021/20202021/2019
.
Indiaislikelytobeakeyvariablefortheglobal
economicoutlook
India’scombinationofsomeoftheworld’sstrictestlockdownmeasuresand
limitedstimulusspendingledtooneofthesharpestdeclinesofanymajor
economy,%
attheendoftheyear,
placeIndia’sannualGDPgrowthat12%in2021,thoughwithsignificant
uncertaintieslinkedtotheevolutionofinfectionsandtherolloutofvaccines.
Inmanyemergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomies,economicrecoveryhas
beenconstrainedbylimitedaccesstovaccinedoses,capitalflightandconcerns
,LatinAmerica
,higheroilpriceshave
increasedrevenuesforoilexporters.
PAGE|5
:.
GlobalEnergyReview2021Energydemand
Assessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveries
onglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021
Energydemand
Globalenergydemandissettoincreaseby
%in2021,surpassingpre-Covid-19levels.
Globalenergydemandin2020fellby4%,thelargestdeclinesinceWorldWarII

inthefirstquarterof2021highlightsthecontinuedimpactsofthepandemicon
,projectionsfor2021indicatethatasCovid
restrictionsareliftedandeconomiesrecover,energydemandisexpectedto
%,%abovepre-Covid-19
,however,
onvaccinerollouts,theextenttowhichtheCovid-19-inducedlockdownsscarred
economies,
economicoutlooksassumeglobalGDPwillsurpass2019levels,liftingdemand
forgoods,,transportactivityand,particularly,
-
Covidlevelsacross2021,globalenergydemandwillriseevenhigher,toalmost
2%above2019levels,anincreasebroadlyinlinewiththereboundinglobal
economicactivity.
EvolutionofglobalGDP,totalprimaryenergydemand,andenergy-relatedCO2
emissions,relativeto2019.
4%
GDP
2%
Energydemand
0%
Indexed(2019=0%)
CO2emissions
-2%
-4%
-6%
201920202021
.
PAGE|6
:Thedo