属性论在供应链牛鞭效应防范中的应用.doc

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属性论在供应链牛鞭效应防范中的应用
李建丽1,刘永昌2,冯嘉礼3,
上海海事大学交通运输学院1,上海,200135;
上海海事大学联合创新实验基地2,上海,200135;
上海海事大学信息工程技术研究所3,上海,200135
readingcampus@,vycliu@,******@shmtu.
摘要:提高预测的准确性是缓解供应链牛鞭效应的关键。我们运用属性论方法,就制造商-零售商-客户三级供应链,建立了零售商的下游产品订购量的基本预测模型,同时提出两个拓展模型来预测零售商向上游的订货点,以及制造商的生产量。在三个模型信息整合的基础上提高了预测的准确性,由此可防范牛鞭效应的发生。本研究还提供了基本模型的算法流程。
关键字:需求信息预测;供应链;牛鞭效应;属性论
Application of Attribute Theory Method in Prevention of
Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains
LI Jian-li1,FENG Jia-li2,LIU Yong-chang3
College of Transportation1,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai,200135;
Experimental Base of United Creation2,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai,200135;Research Center of Information Engineering and Technology3, Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai ,200135
readingcampus@,vycliu@,******@shmtu.
Abstract : Accuracy in prediction is the key of in prevention of Bullwhip Effectin in Supply Chains. Firstly , for a simple three- level supply prising a single manufacturer , a single retailer and the end customer, this paper establish the basic forcasting model to predict the order quantity of the customer of the relailer, on the basis of Attribute Theory Method. In addition, two extensive forcasting model is built to predict the inventory level for the retailer and the manufacturing quantity for the manufacturer, thus enhancing the prediction effect and preventing the bullwhip effect in the Supply