文档介绍：ContentsExecutivesummary:2020,theyearofrecovery 3Topicalessays 8Tradewar:Stateofplay 9Dealingwiththenextdownturn:Policyoptions 13Brexit:Stateofplay 172020USPresidentialandCongressionalelections 19HastradedivergencegivenrisetoinvestmentdivergenceinAsia? 28Marketsoutlook 31Globalinterestrateoutlook:2020upside,butstructurallystilllow 32FXoutlook:PeakUSdollarhasarrived 36Oilandnaturalgasoutlook:Alleyesondemand moditiesoutlook:Industrialbears 43Equityoutlook:Thebullmarketcontinues 47Individualcountryeconomicoutlook 49UnitedStates:Midyearimprovementondiminishingtraderisks 50Canada:Slowergrowthahead 54China:Gettingworsebeforegettingbetter 58Eurozone:Modestrecovery,butno2017re-run 62Japan:Inflationtargettoremainelusive 65India:Stimulustosupportagradualrecovery 68Australia:Gentlestofgentleturningpoints 71NewZealand:Near-termdownside 75Forecasttables 78Economicandmarketforecasts moditypriceforecasts 81RicDeverell+61282324307ric.******@HaydenSkilling,CFA+@Executivesummary:2020,theyearofrecoveryStandingatthecrossroads2019hasbeenamost“dangerousyear”,,withtheassociateduncertaintyalsoweighingonbusinessinvestment,,incontrast,,aswegotoprint,globalGDPgrowthlookstobestillslowing,withgrowthlikelytoprintatalittlebelow2%saarinQ4,downfrom2¼%,alongwiththefactthattheFednowcastingmodelsareestimatingthatUSgrowthmomentumhasslowedtoalittlebelow1%inQ4,suggeststhatthenextthreemonthswillbecritical,Fig2However,thereareearly‘greenshoots’intheindustrialsector% GlobalGrowth&PMIGDPgrowth,year-ended(LHS) CompositePMI,quarter