文档介绍：河北大学
硕士学位论文
河北省城市化水平的综合评价与预测研究
姓名:郝静雯
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:统计学
指导教师:李林杰
20100501
摘要
摘要
城市化是推动人类社会经济发展的必然趋势,加速城市化进程对我国经济社会发展
具有极为重要的意义。当前,我国城市化已进入高速发展时期,但长期以来,河北省城
市化水平低于全。在这种背景下,正确认识河北
省城市化发展现状,准确把握城市化发展的主要影响因素、一般规律、应对战略以及配
套政策等,就显得非常重要。
本文通过分析城市化的基本内涵、测度方法及演进规律,对河北省城市化的发展水
平进行概括分析,构建了城市化发展水平的综合评价指标体系,利用因子分析方法对河
北省城市化的发展水平进行了综合评价,确定了河北省城市化发展的主要影响因子,并
运用指数平滑模型对河北省城市化的未来发展趋势进行了预测,最后根据评价和分析结
果有针对性地提出了促进河北省城市化健康发展的对策建议。

关键词城市化因子分析指数平滑模型河北省
I
Abstract
Abstract
Urbanization is an inevitable promotion of human socio-economic development trends,
accelerating the urbanization process of China's economic and social development of great
importance. At present, China's urbanization has entered a rapid development period, but For
a long time, Hebei Province's level of urbanization is still lower than national average level,
and lag behind its economic development level. In this context, a correct understanding of the
status quo of urbanization development in Hebei Province, accurately grasp the urbanization
of the main factors, the general rule, response strategies and supporting policies, it is very
important.
The remainder of the article anized as follows. Section 1 reviews the relevant
background, research significance and the relevant literature. Section 2 analyzes the basic
connotation of urbanization, measurement methods and the law of evolution. The
developmental level of urbanization process in Hebei province is generally analysis in
Section 3. Section 4 constructs prehensive evaluation index system about
developmental level of urbanization. Section 5 using factor prehensive evaluates
developmental level of urbanization in Hebei province, determines the main impact factor of
urbanization development, and using time series method exponential smoothing model for the
future of Hebei province urbanization trends to predict. Finally, based on the evaluation and
analysis of targeted put forwar