文档介绍：“I know of no one bines theory and
observation—intellectual rigor and
painstaking observation of the real world—
so brilliantly and gracefully as Gary Klein.”
Malcolm Gladwell, author of Outliers and Blink
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Streetlights and Shadows
Streetlights and Shadows
Searching for the Keys to Adaptive Decision Making
Gary Klein
A Bradford Book
The MIT Press
Cambridge, Massachusetts
London, England
( 2009 Massachusetts Institute of Technology
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any elec-
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Set in Palatino on 3B2 by Asco Typesetters, Hong Kong. Printed and bound in the United
States of America.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Klein, Gary
Streetlights and shadows : searching for the keys to adaptive decision making / Gary
Klein.
p. cm.
‘‘A Bradford Book.’’
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-262-01339-0 (hardcover : alk. paper)
1. Decision making. 2. Problem solving. I. Title.
2009
'3—dc22 2009007501
**********
to Helen, Devorah, and a
Contents
List of Examples ix
1 Ten Surprises about How We Handle Ambiguous
Situations 1
Part I Making Decisions 13
2 A Passion for Procedures 15
3 Seeing the Invisible 33
4 How Biased Is Our Thinking? 49
5 Intuition versus Analysis 67
6 Blending Intuition and Analysis to Make Rapid
Decisions 83
7 Experts and Errors 101
8 Automating Decisions 115
Part II Making Sense of Situations 127
9 More Is Less 129
10 When