文档介绍：华中科技大学
硕士学位论文
用模糊数学预测煤与瓦斯突出方法研究
姓名:朱文浩
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:固体力学
指导教师:倪樵
2011-01-19
华中科技大学硕士学位论文
摘要
煤炭是全世界重要的能源和资源,与国家经济的命脉紧密相连。而煤与瓦斯突
出是煤矿生产中主要的事故灾害之一,严重破坏煤炭生产、阻碍经济的发展以及危
害煤炭生产人员的生命安全。由于在国内外突出机理的研究尚未形成统一的观点,
突出机理尚停留着众多假说的阶段,瓦斯突出灾害的情况又日益严峻,本文跳过繁
琐复杂的瓦斯突出机理研究,直接从突出预测入手研究,完成对突出的预测和预警。
本文受 GJ 煤矿委托,设计一套煤与瓦斯突出预警系统,对 GJ 煤矿 M9 煤层给予风
险评估意见,解决 GJ 煤矿的实际难题。煤与瓦斯突出非常复杂,所涉及的影响因素
众多,任何单因素法预测在一定程度上都不够准确的,故本文将采用模糊数学综合
评价法预测 GJ 煤矿煤与瓦斯突出。文中结合学术上普遍接受的综合作用假说,分析
突出的发生条件和发生规律,总结了各项因素对煤与瓦斯突出的影响,结合所收集
的 GJ 煤矿的实际情况数据,确定了包括煤层厚度、埋藏深度、地质构造复杂程度、
煤层倾角、放散初速度、坚固性系数等在内的 9 大敏感指标,用模糊数学的方法,
建立因素集和评价集,采用专家建议法确定了敏感因素的权重系数,建立权重集,
构建模糊数学评价体系,给出风险评估结果。最后用 MATLAB 编写的应用程序,交
付 GJ 煤矿,完成对瓦斯突出的风险评估。
关键词:煤与瓦斯突出模糊数学敏感指标综合评价风险评估
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华中科技大学硕士学位论文
ABSTRACT
Coal is an important energy and resources around the world, is closely linked to the
lifeblood of the national economy .Outburst of coal and gas produces one of the major
accident hazards in coal mines, seriously endangers the safety of coal production
personnel, hinders economic development and threats to the safety of coal production
personnel. As highlighted in the mechanism of domestic and not yet formed a unified view,
gas outburst disaster the increasingly serious situation,this paper skip this cumbersome
mechanism, researches prediction of coal and gas outburst directly, completes the
outstanding forecasting and early warning. This paper missioned by the Guijin Coal
Mine, to design a warning system of coal and gas outburst, give the suggestion of risk
assessment about M9 of Guijin Coal Mine and solve the practical problems of Guijin Coal
Mine. In this paper, prehensive evaluation method would be used to predict coal
and gas outburst of Guijin Coal Mine. Academic paper with bined effects of
generally accepted hypothesis, analyze conditions and patterns of occurrence of coal and
gas outburst, summarizes the various factors on the impact of coal and gas outburst. The
actual situati