文档介绍：学校代码:10254
密级:
论文编号:
上海海事大学
SHANGHAI MARITIME UNIVERSITY
硕士学位论文
MASTER DISSERTATION
论文题目: 太平洋集装箱航线配船策略研究
学科专业: 交通运输规划与管理
作者姓名: 孙安
指导教师: 王学锋
完成日期: 二O一O年六月
摘要
2008年由美国次贷危机引发的金融危机对世界经济、贸易和海运业的发展带来了巨大冲击。经济环境的恶化对全球经济产生了明显的不利影响,经济滑坡导致货量剧减,货量剧减导致集装箱运输量大幅减少。由于金融危机爆发前的航运市场异常繁荣,导致航运公司盲目定船,新船订单创纪录,导致运力过剩。由于造船周期在两年到四年,所以从2009-2011年这部分新船都会陆续交付使用,这就更加剧了运力过剩的问题。由于此次金融危机是二战后最严重的一次,因此对航运业的影响是巨大的,2009年班轮公司普遍遭受巨大的经济损失,金融危机已经严重打击了航运市场。
市场供求规律是市场学的基本原理之一,本文首先简要分析了集装箱航运市场,对运输需求与供给现状进行分析,结合各方数据和信息得出集装箱运力发展趋势。本文对运力过剩背景下的集装箱航运市场的特点进行了分析,并分析这些特点对于班轮公司航线配船的影响,接着建立集装箱航线货运量预测模型对航线集装箱货流量进行预测,以得出集装箱航线较为准确的集装箱货运量。最后建立基于成本最优的数学模型对集装箱航线的配船方案进行研究。以期研究出在运力严重过剩背景下的船公司的集装箱船配线方案,以达到降低船公司的营运成本的效果。
关键词:集装箱船,航运市场,运力过剩,GM(1,1)模型
ABSTRACT
The global financial crisis caused by the . subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 had a great impact on the world economy, trade and shipping industry. The deterioration of economic conditions had obviously unfavorable influences on the global economy. The economic decline led to the sharp decline in volume, leading to the sharp decline in the volume of container traffic. The singularly prosperous shipping market before the financial crisis led to the pany order container ships blindly. Freight rates have soared with new ship orders which have set a new record, which caused the capacity surplus. The financial crisis is the most serious one after World War II, which caused huge economics loss to shipping industry in 2009. The financial crisis has seriously undermined the shipping market.
Market supply and demand is one of the basic principles of marketing, This article briefly analyzed the container shipping market, the transport demand and supply situation, to obtain the trend of shipping capacity with the data and information in every directions. The article analyzed the features of the container shipping market on the background of capacity surplus, and also analyzed these features how to affect the ship distribution of pany, and then build the forecas