文档介绍：重庆大学
硕士学位论文
重庆市住宅房地产市场的供求分析
姓名:张俊
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:数量经济学
指导教师:张荣
20060401
重庆大学硕士学位论文中文摘要
摘要
房地产市场与人民的生活密切相关,不论是从带动国民经济发展的角度,还
是从满足人民群众基本需求的角度,房地产市场的发展都至关重要。由于房地产
业在国民经济中的重要地位,它的运行状态会对国民经济的持续、健康发展有着
重要影响。“十一五”规划时期是重庆市的经济与社会快速发展时期,重庆市将进
一步加大对房地产开发的投资,城镇居民对住房的需求也随着生活水平的改善而
不断增加,因此,对重庆市住宅房地产市场的供求状况加以分析和研究是十分必
要的。
本文分五个部分,第一部分简述了研究背景及意义,第二部分介绍了房地产
业发展的特点和基础理论,第三部分在调查和实证分析的基础上,分析了重庆市
房地产业发展的现状和前景,第四部分通过比较详实的数据,从重庆市住宅市场
的供给、需求及各自的影响因素这两方面,研究了重庆市城镇人均房屋建筑面积
与城镇化率、人均国内生产总值、总人口和城镇居民家庭恩格尔系数之间的相关
性,以及商品房住宅供给与城镇化率和房地产开发投资的相关性,并对各变量的
平稳性和变量间的协整性进行了检验,建立了相应的长期均衡的线性回归模型,
然后结合重庆市住宅房地产市场发展的趋势和“十一五”规划的目标,利用模型
预测了重庆市未来五年内商品房住宅的需求量和供给量,最后,根据所预测的数
据分析了这期间住宅市场的供求状况,第五部分是对重庆市住宅房地产市场发展
前景的分析和总结,并根据实际情况,对房地产市场存在的问题和发展前景提出
了相应的政策建议。
关键词:房地产,商品房住宅,供求理论,多元线性回归
I
重庆大学硕士学位论文英文摘要
ABSTRACT
The real estate market has a close relationship with us. It plays a very important
role in economic development and people's fundamental needs. As well known real
estate market has great influence on the sustainable development of economy.
Chongqing will experience a fast development during the period of the eleventh
five-year. There will be an increase in residential investment and residents’demand for
house. Therefore, study on the supply and demand of real estate market is very
necessary.
This paper has five part, it discussed the research background and significance in
the first part. The second part is some characteristic and fundamentals of residential real
estate industry. It analyzed the current situation and foreground based on wide rage of
investigation and case studies in third part. With the full and accurate data, the fourth
part had analysed Chongqing housing real estate market from two aspects of supply,
demand and influence factors of themselves, and research on the relativity between per
capita residential space of urban households and rate of urban population, per capita
GDP, total population or Engle coefficient of urban households, as well